From California to Arizona

Home Sales Outlook
The second most popular state-to-state move in the nation is from California to Arizona (California to Texas is No. 1), according to a new study from StorageCafé. Like affordable rents, the relative affordability of houses for sale adds to the Valley’s allure for job seekers. And that demand has made prices less affordable.

Phoenix led the 35 largest metro areas in the country in 2019 with home values rising 6.5 percent, according to Zillow. Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) figures the Top 10 metro markets likely to outperform over the next three to five years, based on a combination of job growth and home affordability, do not include Phoenix. That list, which predicts outsized price gains on a percentage basis, is topped by… in case you’re thinking of moving… Charleston, South Carolina and Charlotte, North Carolina.

The housing market’s continued strength, locally and nationally, depends in part on if, and when a recession kicks in, potentially dampening the appetite for home purchases.

While nobody has an effective crystal ball, top economists predict a 29 percent chance of recession in 2020, according to a recent report from the NAR. Two-thirds of these economists do not expect interest rates to rise significantly this year, another important factor driving home purchases. Their consensus on home prices: a 3.6 percent lift in 2020.

“We saw the year come to a close with the economy churning out 2.3 million jobs, mortgage rates below 4 percent and housing starts ramp up to 1.6 million on an annual basis,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “If these factors are sustained in 2020, we will see a notable pick up in home sales in 2020.”


Search data reveals where the majority of the people outside Arizona, who are looking for a rental in the Phoenix Metro area, are moving from. Map shows the Top 20 (SOURCE: Apartment List).

The Top 5
Los Angeles: 33.2%
Riverside, Calif.: 4.6%
Chicago: 4.0%
Las Vegas: 2.4%
New York City: 2.3%

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Erika Madsen
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